Iran prediction

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Iran prediction

OmegaKV
Iranians have been protesting/rioting in Iran for the last few months. The people want regime change because they hate Iran's religious government, and they hate policies like mandatory hijab. The protests definitely have a feminist slant, with the rally cry being "Women, life freedom". The dominant leader behind the protests is Masih Alinejad, a woman.

Watching these protests, it is clear the Iranian people want a more westernized government, as it was before the 1979 revolution. And I think most Iranians imagine these protests culminating into a regime change where the Iranian Islamic regime is replaced by a democratic westernized government. The minority of Shia Islamic regime supporters however are waiting for these protests to die down and for the Mullahs to regain a strong grasp on the Iranian people.

I however see a third option: Invasion by a foreign power. I think with the civil chaos currently in Iran, it is possible that Iran will be sufficiently weakened and disunited that it will crack under invasion by a foreign power. For example, if the Taliban invade eastern Iran, and try to take Balochistan, I would think that it would be difficult for Iran to organize in order to defend itself.